New Delhi, Bihar by polls There is no accurate prediction of the by-elections being held on four seats in Bihar after the Lok Sabha elections. Prashant Kishore's (PK) new party Jan Suraj has made an election in Bihar triangular for the first time in almost two decades. The style of campaigning and the restlessness of alliances indicate that the result can give a big message. It can affect the politics of power with the help of reversals in the caste equation.

This by-election is a litmus test for PK

This by-election is also like a big litmus test for PK, who has left behind the electoral strategy and entered the field of politics. Also, this is a difficult time for both the big alliances (NDA and Mahagathbandhan) that have been deeply rooted in power in Bihar for three decades, because Jan Suraj is trying to make its way by breaking into the core voters of both the alliances.

Obviously, only the result will tell what kind of political chessboard will be laid out before the general elections of the assembly next year? How united will the core voters of RJD, JDU and BJP be? Will PK become the harbinger of any change or will he himself change and start reading the horoscopes of politicians for remuneration?

This by-election will prove to be a semi-final

At present, it is so clear that there is not going to be any change in the power of Bihar due to this by-election, but this political struggle taking place a year before the general election is being considered as a semi-final. Like the result of the by-election, the future possibilities will also have three angles.

Upper caste politics on the margins

Upper caste politics has been on the margins in Bihar for more than four decades. Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has kept the BJP deprived of power in Bihar on its own with the help of MY (Yadav-Muslim) equation. Similarly, Nitish Kumar's JDU has kept the politics of BJP and RJD balanced by mobilizing other backward castes. Along with its core voters, BJP also has the support of Nitish Kumar's penetration in the backward class. Nitish Kumar's vote bank has come together due to standing with the government at the center.

Jan Suraj can give a shock

JDU's performance in the Lok Sabha elections has been better than others. JDU is not under the shadow of Chirag Paswan like last time. Everyone has their own vote bank and their own equations. But with the gradually strengthening strategy of Jan Suraj, it seems for the first time that something is going to happen in Bihar politics.

Lalu's politics can get a shock

If PK's performance is good, then Lalu's politics of nepotism can also get a shock. Anyway, all three forces are to be tested intensely. The result will tell how much of Lalu Yadav's vote bank has been transferred to Tejashwi Yadav. Also whether Nitish Kumar's almost shattered Lavkush equation can unite again in the Lok Sabha elections or not and for Prashant Kishore, the result of this by-election will bring a do or die situation.

PK laid the foundation of his party on October 2 after walking from village to village in Bihar for almost two years. On the very first day, he claimed that he will wipe out everyone in the by-elections. Now it is time to show, not claim. If he wins, he will be a conqueror and if not…